TCU @ North Carolina

Week 1 of the college football season comes to an end tonight in Chapel Hill, where TCU looks to use a promising conclusion from the previous campaign as a springboard for momentum this Fall. Needless to say, it has been an uneven ride for (Head Coach) Sonny Dykes since he arrived in Fort Worth in 2022, leading the Horned Frogs to a magical 13-2 run that led to a trip to the National Championship Game. However, his troops regressed in 2023 to a disappointing 5-7, only to see that malaise continue into last Fall with just 5 wins in their first 9 contests. However, something clicked come early November, as the Frogs won their final 4 games, culminating in a 34-3 romp over Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl. Now, with 15 returning starters, including (Junior Quarterback) Josh Hoover (more on him in a bit) and the BIG XII's top-rated recruiting class, it looks like this program stands a real chance of not only enjoying consecutive winning campaigns for the first time since 2018, but competing in what for all intents and purposes will be a wide-open BIG XII.

Things to Know: TCU has now gone 7 straight seasons without back-to-back winning campaigns (50-39 SU). Since he was hired back in 2022, Dykes is 27-13 SU and 20-16-1 ATS at TCU, including 8-8 ATS on the road, 14-10 ATS as a favorite, and 5-4 ATS versus non-conference opponents. Furthermore, the Horned Frogs are just 2-8 ATS on weekdays over the past 8 years. In season openers, this is a school that is 8-2 SU and 2-3 ATS over the last 10 years, including 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS versus FBS opposition. TCU bested Stanford 34-27 last Fall in Paolo Alto but did not cover the spread (-7.5). Tonight's affair marks the fourth all-time meeting with North Carolina, their first since 1997, with the Frogs in search of their first-ever victory in the series. These programs will also meet in next year's season opener, which will take place at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. Dykes is looking for major returns from the Transfer Portal, particularly in the form of (Idaho transfer) Jordan Dwyer; the WR hauled in 78 passes for 1,192 yards and 12 TD last Fall, turning down advances from both Georgia and USC to attend TCU.

Playmaker to Watch: This one is going to have to be Josh Hoover, folks. Entering his third year as the starting QB, the Junior will be asked to carry more of the offensive load this Fall, particularly when it comes to raising a new WR Corps. TCU lost its top-3 pass-catchers from last season, with the likes of Jack Bech, Savion Williams, and John Paul Richardson amassing 179 catches and 2,378 receiving yards. That equates to a large chunk of Hoover's production, with the gunslinger completing 66.5% of his throws for 3,949 yards 27 TD and 11 INT. In Dykes' Air Raid scheme, the passing game is king, with the Horned Frogs averaging 312.9 yards per game through the air, accounting for a whopping 73.3% of their offensive production. The arrival of the aforementioned Dwyer should help, though the pressure will be on Hoover to keep the ball rolling.

Meanwhile, Chapel Hill will be the season-long sight of one of the most unique experiments that we've seen on the collegiate level, as (8-time Super Bowl-winner) Bill Belichick begins his first campaign with North Carolina. After 40 years of unparalleled success coaching in the NFL, Belichick shocked the sports world by opting to transition to the collegiate level, where he is aiming to transform the Tar Heels' program into a pro-like institution. Joining him are former associates, Mike Lombardi, who will be effectively serving as his General Manager, and his son, Steve Belichick, who spent last season operating as Washington's Defensive Coordinator. After a disappointing end to his tenure in New England coupled with a cold market for his services from other NFL teams, there is no doubt that the 3-time AP Coach of the Year is motivated. Then again, so is UNC, who are desperate to level up; the Heels have won 10+ games only once since 1997, with their last conference title coming back in 1980.

Things to Know: Belichick is a ridiculous 302-165 SU (.647) as a HC in the NFL, which is good for second all-time in wins. With the Patriots alone he was 266-121 SU over 24 seasons, while owning a 30-12 CV in the Playoffs, winning 6 Super Bowls, 9 AFC Championships, and 17 divisional crowns. Furthermore, his 11 consecutive playoff appearances (2009-2019) are the most in NFL history. By comparison, North Carolina, is just 57-48 SU (.542) since finishing 11-3 back in 2015. Last season, they bottomed out at 6-7 SU and were terribly unreliable ATS (3-8-1), including 0-4 ATS to end the campaign. The Tar Heels are 0-5-1 ATS versus non-conference opponents and haven't covered any of their last 5 meetings with BIG XII opposition. UNC are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 September affairs, with a 1-7-1 ledger ATS on weekdays over the past 7 seasons. Home hasn't been kind to the Heels either, who are 1-10 ATS over their last 10 games at Kenan Memorial Stadium, along with a miserable 3-15 ATS when playing on natural grass.

Playmaker to Watch: While he won't be throwing passes or scoring TDs this Fall, all eyes continue to be fixated on Bill Belichick in tonight's debut. By now, we are all well aware of the success that he enjoyed over the course of nearly 4 decades in the NFL, but the collegiate level is a different animal altogether. Granted, there are some who will point out that today's landscape is closer to the NFL than it has ever been, with the Transfer Portal and NIL dominating recruiting and player movement. Will the defensive maestro be able to utilize the myriad complicated fronts and coverages that were his calling card in the pros? How will he handle teaching younger individuals within a much more truncated window of time? How long will it take before the plethora of ridiculous rules and regulations imposed by the NCAA drive him absolutely nuts? Needless to say, this is one of the biggest gambles in recent memory, which should make for plenty of entertainment as the 73-year-old looks to conquer the college game.

Our Take: TCU 34, North Carolina 21