(9) LSU @ (4) Clemson

It's year 4 for (head Coach) Brian Kelly at LSU and the pressure is building for the Tigers to finally break into the Playoff. 29-11 SU (.725) thus far in Baton Rouge, Kelly has done a solid of rebuilding a program that had bogged down into the Bayou under the previous regime. However, they didn't pry the 63-year-old away from South Bend for simply "solid", folks. The mandate is a national title. On paper, this looks like Kelly's strongest group since he arrived, what with 15 returning starters, headlined by (Heisman candidate QB) Garrett Nussmeier and a loaded WR Corp, along with a bevy of transfers to address a defense that hasn't lived up to the standards of past Tigers. It will be interesting to see if they can buck the trend of struggling early on; in each of Kelly's three years on the job, LSU has met defeat against a ranked non-conference opponent, thinning their margin for error dramatically the rest of the way.

Things to Know: Kelly is a middling 19-18 ATS at LSU, including 4-9 ATS away from Baton Rouge, 5-5 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and 7-5 ATS versus non-conference opposition. The Tigers is 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games overall, though just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 away games. Since winning the 2019 National Championship, the Bayou Bengals are a miserable 0-5 SU/ATS in season openers. Tonight's showdown marks the fifth all-time meetings between these programs, with LSU holding a 3-1 SU advantage, with the most recent (and by far and away the most notable) being that aforementioned affair in the 2019 National Title Game, where the residents off the SEC DESTROYED Clemson in a 42-25 extravaganza. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (Junior WR) Aaron Anderson, who led the team in catches (61) and receiving yards (884) last Fall. He is listed as questionable due to lingering knee soreness. Kelly did a good job of restocking this position group, adding (Kentucky transfer) Barion Brown (29 REC, 361 YDS, 3 TD) and (Oklahoma transfer) Nic Anderson (38 REC, 798 YDS, 10 TD in 2023) via the Portal.

Playmaker to Watch: In this QB showdown, the most notable Tiger is easily Nussmeier. The fifth-year Senior patiently waited for his opportunity behind (2023 Heisman) Jayden Daniels, earning widespread acclaim in his first season as the starter. Nussmeier completed 64.2% of this throws for 4,052 yards and 29 TD, all the while leading the SEC in completions (337) and Attempts (525). With that being said, he also paced the league in interceptions (12), though a lot of that has to do with the sheer volume of passes thrown last Fall (second-most in the FBS). Given how weak last year's NFL Draft class was at QB, it says an awful lot about this kid that he opted to return to Baton Rouge for what could very well be a magical campaign. Remember: (former Tigers) Joe Burrow and Daniels exploded in their second seasons as LSU's QB, with each claiming Heisman honors, and in Burrow's case, a National Championship. No pressure, Nuss...

Meanwhile, Clemson did manage to qualify for the Playoff after a late surge to claim a 9th ACC Championship since 2011. In fact, the skipper has averaged 11.25 wins per campaign, the most of any current HC in the FBS. Finishing at 10-4, it was the 13th time that (Head Coach) Dabo Swinney led the Tigers to 10 or more victories in a campaign. While many viewed them as ahead-of-schedule last Fall, these Cats are the favorites to represent the ACC in this Winter's Playoff, thanks to a wealth of experience with 17 returning starters, chief among them being a Heisman candidate QB of their own, Cade Klubnik (more on him in a bit). Much has been made of Swinney's reluctance to embrace the Portal, with the 55-year-old opting to go about building his team the old-fashioned way, assembling the top-ranked recruiting class in the nation. If Clemson can pass this early test against a tough SEC opponent, which is a big IF considering their recent history in that regard, then one would favor their chances of reaching the Playoff unbeaten. Remember, the Tigers is just 3-6 SU in their last 9 matchups against SEC opponents, including a dreadful 1-5 SU when that adversary is ranked.

Things to Know: Swinney is a stellar 180-47 SU (.793) in 16 years at Clemson, including 115-92-3 ATS, 51-44 ATS at home, 94=79 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, and 33-36 ATS versus non-conference opponents. The Tigers are 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games overall and just 1-4 ATS in their past 5 outings as a favorite. We touched upon their struggles against the SEC, which translates to the spread with 4 consecutive ATS losses versus such opposition. Furthermore, Clemson has failed to cover each of their last 4 home outings. Meeting on the gridiron for just the fifth time, Swinney & Co will be looking for some serious payback as they cross paths with LSU for the first time since that aforementioned National Title Game where they were humiliated in a 42-25 affair. On the injury front, keep an eye on the health of (Sophomore RB) Jay Haynes and (Junior TE) Olson Patt-Henry, with both players listed as questionable with various maladies. Both players are expected to vie for starting jobs, with Haynes rushing for 295 yards and 3 TD last season, while Patt-Henry hauled in 9 receptions for 121 yards and 3 scores of his own.

Playmaker to Watch: The opposite side of this QB clash is Cade Klubnik, who enters his third season as the undisputed starter for Clemson. Everything clicked last Fall for Klubnik, who completed 63.4% of his throws for 3,639 yards and 36 TD in comparison to tossing just 6 INT, while also rushing for 463 yards and 7 more scores. We covered the Tigers struggles against SEC competition, but Klubnik did his best to rewrite that narrative in last Winter's CFP showdown with Texas; the dual-threat completed 26-of-43 passes for 336 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT in the 38-24 defeat.

Our Take: Clemson 32, LSU 27