Auburn @ Baylor

Coming into 2025, if there is a Head Coach sitting on a hotter seat than Auburn's Hugh Freeze, we would be impressed. Now in his third year on The Plains, the 55-year-old needs to turn it around for the Tigers, who have now suffered 4 consecutive 7-loss campaigns, including last Fall's 5-7 finish. Granted, life is perpetually hard in the SEC, but the fact that War Eagle has fallen so far behind its neighbors, particularly the one residing in Tuscaloosa, has really left a bitter taste in the mouths of the fan base. As such, it appears that Freeze is swinging for the fences in an attempt to finally get it right, what with 16 returning starters, a pair of which being a pair of potentially high-impact transfers, namely (QB) Jackson Arnold and (WR) Eric Singelton via Oklahoma and Georgia Tech respectively. Simply put, they'll be tasked with jumpstarting an attack that averaged just 27.8 points (71st in FBS) on 429.4 total yards, though could muster a mere 13.5 points per game in their 7 defeats. Furthermore, turnovers were a major issue for Auburn as well, with 22 giveaways translating to a -9 differential making matters even more difficult. With stats like that, it is now wonder that the school has recently opted to claiming 7 additional National Championships instead of the official 2 that had been previously recognized.

Things to Know: Auburn is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games overall, including 4-6 ATS in their past 10 trips away from Jordan-Hare Stadium. Freeze is 11-14 SU and 11-12 ATS in his first 2 seasons on The Plains, 4-5 ATS on the road, 5-7 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, and 3-4 ATS versus non-conference opponents. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games contested in August, while 5 straight road outings have gone Under the total. War Eagle has also seen each of their past 4 affairs with the BIG XII result in the total also resulting in an Under. Tonight's matchup marks the first between Auburn and Baylor since 1976, with the former owning a 1-2-1 SU record in the all-time series.

Playmaker to Watch: We're going to split the baby here and give the nod to both Arnold and Singleton, who be counted upon to kickstart a struggling attack. Arnold, a former 5-star recruit who transferred from Oklahoma, went just 5-5 as the starter in Norman last Fall, completing 62.6% of his throws for 1,421 yards on a mere 5.8 yards per attempt, with 12 TD opposed to 3 INT, while rushing for another 444 yards and 3 more scores. Granted, injuries effected his play in 2024 and given that he missed Auburn's spring practice due to a minor leg malady, we can't blame the faithful in that region of Alabama for being anxious. As for Singleton, the junior pass-catcher topped 700 receiving yards in each of his 2 seasons with the Rambling Wreck, even factoring into the ground game with 131 rushing yards on 21 carries last Fall.

Meanwhile, Dave Aranda is in a very different place than his counterpart in tonight's affair, with Baylor poised to compete in what should be a wide-open BIG XII. Following back-to-back losing campaigns, the 48-year-old looked like he was headed for a pink slip only to completely rewrite the narrative and finishing the regular season with 6 straight wins/covers to earn an 8-5 finish. Now armed with a whopping 18 returning starters, these Bears are expected to pack plenty of bite this Fall, particularly on offense; the attack averaged 34.4 points per game (19th in FBS) on 440.1 total yards, including 41.3 points during that aforementioned 6-game stretch, clearing 500 total yards on 4 occasions.

Things to Know: Baylor is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall, though are 4-1 ATS in their past 5 outings. The Bears are also 4-1 ATS over their past 5 home games. As for Aranda, the HC is 31-30 SU and 30-25-2 ATS in 5 seasons in Waco, including 14-12 ATS at McLane Stadium, 18-12 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and 4-5 ATS versus non-conference opposition. Baylor has covered 6 of their last 7 home affairs. However, this is a team that is also 1-6 ATS over their past 7 tilts contested on Friday nights. Furthermore, 8 of their last 10 home games have gone Over the total (8-1-1), while 4 of their past 5 non-conference outings have gone Under the total. Meeting for the first time in 50 years, it should be noted that Baylor is 2-1-1 SU against Auburn. During his time as LSU's Defensive Coordinator (2016-2019), Aranda was 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS versus the Tigers.

Playmaker to Watch: With the offense set to erupt even further this Fall, all eyes are on (Redshirt Junior QB) Sawyer Robertson, who really made a name for himself last season, his first as the starter. 2 years after transferring from Mississippi State, Robertson completed 62.2% of his throws for 3,071 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt with 28 TD in comparison to 8 INT, while also proving to be a threat with his legs, rushing for another 230 yards and 4 more scores. During that 6-game win streak, he averaged 263.5 yards through the air with 17 TD opposed to 4 INT, followed by a season-high 445 yards in Baylor's 44-31 loss to LSU in last Decembers Texas Bowl.

Our Take: Baylor 34, Auburn 26