Fresno State @ Kansas

It's the beginning of a new era at Fresno State, where the Bulldogs have effectively turned the reins of the program to new Head Coach, Matt Entz. If you're not familiar with the 52-year-old, allow us to enlighten you. Prior to operating as USC's Associate HC last Fall, Entz spent a decade at FCS powerhouse, North Dakota State, initially as Defensive Coordinator before taking over for (K-State bound) Chris Klieman in 2019. In his 5 years as HC, Entz went a stellar 60-11 (.845), including a pair of National Championships (2019, 2021). He'll be looking to keep the ball rolling in Fresno, where the program won 9 or more games 5 times over the past 8 years. With 10 new coaches and 21 new players at his disposal, it will be interesting to see how successful this leap will be for the 2-time FCS Coach of the Year.

Things to Know: Fresno State went 29-11 (.725) from 2021 to 2023 under (former HC) Jeff Tedford, though lost a lot of steam under his successor, Tim Skipper, who was dismissed after one year on the job (6-7). With that being said, the Bulldogs were a solid play ATS in 2024, posting a 7-4-1 record in that regard. Fresno State are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 trips away from the Valley. The Bulldogs are 6-4 ATS over their past 10 games as an underdog. They have been on a heater against BIG XII competition, covering 5 such affairs in a row. Furthermore, the each of their last 4 outings versus that conference have seen the total hit the Over. Fresno State is 8-1 ATS as non-conference road dogs over the last 8 years. This is the first season since 1994 in which the Bulldogs don't face back-to-back road games.

Playmaker to Watch: In this era of college football that has been dominated by player movement via the Transfer Portal, a new HC often means a new QB, which is the case with E.J Warner, who is suiting up for his third different school in as many years. After a less-than-stellar season at Rice, in which he totaled 2,710 passing yards and 17 TD in 11 games, the son of (Hall of Fame QB) Kurt Warner is looking for a new experience once again. While the Senior certainly has some of his father's skillset, the thing that he MUST work on is his decision-making; Warner has tossed 37 interceptions in 32 career appearances, which translates to an untenable 1.15 picks per game. Furthermore, he led the AAC in INTs in each of the last 3 years. QB play can oftentimes make or break a football team, folks, which could make for a wild ride in the Valley this Fall.

Meanwhile, it is a different story altogether in Lawrence, where Lance Leipold enters his fifth season at Kansas, looking to recapture the momentum from 2023's 9-4 campaign, which was their best finish since their Orange Bowl triumph back in 2007. However, the Jayhawks regressed to 5-7 last Fall, due in large part to a shift on offense with the departure of (former OC) Andy Kotelnicki. In 2023, the attack was nothing short of dynamic, averaging 34.8 points (17th in FBS) on 446.1 total yards, only to drop to 29.7 points (52nd in FBS) and 420.2 total yards a year later. As such, Leipold dismissed his successor, Jeff Grimes, in favor of a 2-man approach, with Jim Zebrowski and Matt Lubick sharing playcalling duties this Fall. With just 5 starters returning on this side of the football, it will be interesting to see how adapt, particularly with the loss of productive rusher, Devin Neal, who was selected in the 6th round of the 2025 NFL Draft. A 4-year starter at KU, Neal rushed for over 1,000 yards over each of the past 3 years, with 32 TDs since 2023.

Things to Know: Kansas is 5-5 ATS over their past 10 games overall. Leipold is 13-7 ATS at David Booth Stadium, 7-7 ATS as a favorite, and 4-5 ATS versus non-conference opposition. The Jayhawks ended last season on a heater, going 5-1 ATS. However, they have failed to cover each of their last 5 outings in the month of August, with their last 4 such contests going Over the total. Despite regressing to 5-7, it wasn't all doom and gloom for these birds, who for the first time in school history bested 3 ranked adversaries in a row, beating Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado to close out their schedule.

Playmaker to Watch: Who else could it be other than Jalon Daniels? Now entering his SIXTH season with the Jayhawks, the dual-threat QB is looking to end his career in Lawrence with a bang. No player on the offense was impacted by Kotelnicki's departure more than Daniels, who between 2022 and 2023, completed 68.2% of his passes for 226.6 yards per game, with 23 TD opposed to just 5 INT, while rushing for another 41.6 yards and 7 more scores to boot. However, last Fall, he was far less effective as a passer, connecting on just 57.0% of his throws for 204.5 yards per contest with 14 TD and a BIG XII-high 12 INT. Granted, he still rushed for 439 yards and 6 TD, but the passing game just never found the consistency that it enjoyed under Kotelnicki. Health is another concern for Daniels, who despite starting all 12 games in 2024, made as many in the previous two campaigns altogether due to a variety of injuries.

Projected Outcome: Kansas 38, Fresno State 24