NBA Playoffs: (6) Indiana Pacers @ (3) Milwaukee Bucks

The 2024 NBA Playoffs continue with the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers renewing hostilities with the third-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, who are desperate to redeem themselves following last Spring's stunning upset, though must do so without the services of a certain Greek International for the foreseeable future. Back in the playoffs for the first time since 2020, the Pacers (47-35) have emerged as one of the more entertaining teams in the Association, improving by 12 games thanks in large part to owning the highest-scoring offense at 120.2 points per game. (HC) Rick Carlisle's unit plays FAST, with (All-Star Guard) Tyrese Haliburton leading the charge and the addition of (veteran Forward) Pascal Siakam adding some sorely needed two-way teeth to the rotation. Since the All-Star Break, Indiana has improved dramatically on the defensive end of the hardwood, shipping 6.5 fewer points per contest, which has led to a 13-7 finish to the campaign. Are they ready for the next step though?

Things to Know: The public is split right down the middle in this opening affair between these teams, with 50% of the money currently on the Pacers. Indiana was almost as good ATS (44-36-2) as they were SU (47-35) this season, equating to a differential of just three games. Carlisle & Co are 12-8 ATS over their last 20 games, having not dropped back-to-back games since early March. They have absolutely OWNED the Bucks this season, winning 5 of their 6 meetings, though they haven't crossed paths since November 10th. Pace has been the key for Indy this season, as they rank second in the NBA in possessions per 48 minutes (101.7) and fourth in fast break points (16.6). This return to the postseason breaks a 3-year drought for a franchise that qualified for the playoffs in nine of the previous ten seasons. However, they haven't escaped the first round since 2014, when they made to their second consecutive Eastern Conference Final. The Pacers haven't been good in the playoffs of late, posting a 0-7-1 record ATS in their last 8 first round games.

Playmaker to Watch: Who else but Haliburton? The 2-time All-Star took his game to another level this season as he led the NBA in assists (10.9). The 24-year-old is the proverbial straw that stirs the drink in Indy, with his history against the Bucks worthy of attracting all the attention in this series. In five meetings this season, Haliburton averaged 27.0 points on 53.2% shooting, including 37.5% from beyond the arc, along with 5.8 rebounds, and 11.0 assists. With that being said, since missing 10 of 11 games due a hamstring strain, he hasn't been quite as efficient, shooting 45.5% from the field and just 32.4% from three.

Meanwhile, what a mess of a season it has been for the Bucks (49-33), who despite finishing with the third-best record in the East, have been anything but a stable team. After acquiring (All-NBA Guard) Damian Lillard via trade and hiring Adrian Griffin as their new HC, Milwaukee FIRED Griffin just 43 games into his tenure, eventually replacing him with Doc Rivers, who had been working as an analyst for ESPN. Since then, they've struggled to find consistency, while the addition of Lillard and lingering injuries to (valuable swingman) Khris Middleton have altered the chemistry of the rotation for the worst. Oh, and (2-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to miss at least a few weeks due to a strained calf muscle that everyone in the state of Wisconsin is fearful of getting worse. The Greek Freak continues to be a dominant force with 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks, though it appears that Rivers & Co will have to go on without him, at least for this series with Indiana, if they manage to get past them.

Things to Know: The Bucks were one of the harder teams for the oddsmakers to figure out this season, with a 14-game disparity between their SU success (49-33) and ATS (35-47). Milwaukee did not finish the season strongly, winning 5 of their final 13 games, while covering just 4 of them during that span. They are 4-5 without Giannis this season. Since the shift to Rivers as HC, these deer are a mediocre 17-19, though have managed to plug the many holes within their porous defense, shipping 111.6 points on 46.7% shooting, including 36.6% from three, with 26.3 assists opposed to 11.8 turnovers. The Bucks will be looking to avoid losing in the first round of the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2018. Milwaukee struggled MIGHTILY against Indiana this year, losing 4 of 5 meetings, due to their inability to slow them down, yielding 128.8 points on 48.2% shooting and 28.8 assists. Despite being the 8th-winningest coach in NBA history, Rivers has earned quite a bit of criticism for the performance of his teams in the playoffs, suffering 7 defeats despite being the higher-seeded team.

Playmaker to Watch: With the Greek Freak out of action for what should be the entirety of this series, the pressure is on Lillard to perform. The 33-year-old is an 8-time All-Star, 7-time All-NBA selection, and a member of the league's 75th Anniversary Team, though finally parted ways with the Blazers in an attempt to chase a championship, which brought him to Milwaukee. While the marriage between he and Giannis hasn't been the smoothest, Dame has a history of playoff outbursts which he will need to invoke in order to propel these deer past the Pacers. Lillard shot a miserable 32.4% from the field and 26.5% from three in four meetings with Indiana, which needless to say, will NOT cut it in this series. He has also been battling groin and adductor injuries.

Our Take: Pacers 118, Bucks 110